Chiefs vs Patriots ; The New England Patriots edged the Kansas City Chiefs, 43-40, in an epic regular-season showdown. But the rematch has considerably higher stakes — a 2019 Super Bowl berth. The Kansas City Chiefs host the New England Patriots on Sunday at 6:40 p.m. ET in the AFC Championship Game, and you can catch the action on CBS.
Kansas City was the AFC’s top seed, although New England would have been had it not lost on an unlikely final-play lateral touchdown against Miami. The latest Chiefs vs. Patriots odds list Kansas City as a three-point favorite, with the over-under, or total points Vegas thinks will be scored, at 56.5. Before locking in any Chiefs vs. Patriots picks or your own, you’ll want to see what SportsLine expert Stephen Oh is saying.
A renowned data scientist who co-founded Accuscore, Oh is on an amazing 22-6 heater on NFL picks. He has also shown an uncanny bead on the Patriots. In his past 18 NFL against-the-spread picks involving New England, Oh has been correct 13 times. Anyone who has followed him is way up.
Now, Oh has crunched the numbers for Chiefs vs. Patriots (stream live on fuboTV) and produced a strong AFC Championship Game pick that he’s revealing only at SportsLine.
Oh knows the Chiefs’ offense was the best in the league, tops in scoring (35.3 points per game) and yards gained (425.6). Of course, it was led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who will likely earn NFL MVP honors after passing for 5,097 yards and 50 TDs.
The Chiefs’ defense, which ranked 31st in yards allowed, was stellar in last week’s 31-13 divisional round win over the red-hot Cols, out-gaining them 433-263. It’s a unit that’s terrorized quarterbacks this season, with 52 regular-season sacks. Defensive end Chris Jones had 15, while linebacker Dee Ford had 13.
K.C. also has recent history on its side. The last five years, home teams have had a major advantage in conference championship games. In fact, they’re 10-0 straight up and an amazing 8-2 against the spread. Tom Brady has been human in road playoff games, just 3-4 all-time, with eight touchdowns and eight picks.
But just because Kansas City has home-field advantage doesn’t mean it will cover the Chiefs vs. Patriots spread.
Kansas City was the worst team in the NFL against the pass during the regular season. That should light up the determined eyes of 14-time Pro Bowl QB Tom Brady, who seeks a sixth Super Bowl ring. Brady passed for 4,355 yards and 29 touchdowns and played his best ball at the end of the season. His 100.9 QB rating in December was the best of any month. Then in the divisional round game against the Chargers, he went 34 of 44 for 343 yards in a 41-28 win.
Also, in a game that the National Weather Service is projecting as perhaps the coldest in Arrowhead Stadium history, the run game might be a critical component. The Pats’ Sony Michel, who had 124 yards and three touchdowns against the Chargers, leads the league’s fifth-ranked rush attack.
We can tell you Oh is leaning over, but his stronger play is against the spread. He knows an alarming stat causes one side of the spread to hit hard. He’s only sharing what it is, and who to back, at SportsLine.